Even before movies have been launched, Don, Umrao Jaan and Dhoom 2 have been written off as miserable flops in the Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter study. The study goes on to say that Munnabhai Lagey Raho will be a bigger hit than Kabhie Alvida Na Kehna. And last weekend’s, Emraan’s “The Killer” will make more bucks than Naseeruddin Shah’s directorial debut, “Yun Hota To Kya Hota”
The Euro RSCG Predictameter is a forecasting tool that provides useful insights into any given category. Euro RSCG has used this tool to predict the fate of 18 of top draw Bollywood movies to be released later this year.
Critical to the science of predicting the future are a set of people who Euro RSCG calls “Prosumers”. Prosumers are a special group of customers – they are more knowledgeable in a given category, they love new products, they search for the best value products and they are very demanding. But most of all, Prosumers love sharing their knowledge and their opinions with everyone who cares to listen.
Bollywood successes are increasingly becoming a function of marketing as against purely the quality of the film. Successes of “Krrish” and “Rang De Basanti” are apt examples of this phenomenon. Although movie marketing is fast catching up in India, it has been a key tool to launch movies in Hollywood for many years now. Being a more mature industry, the efforts that marketing makes to create noise around the film are researched and measured very regularly in the west.
The Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter is the first ever attempt at successfully measuring the influence of marketing and buzz on the fate of a film.The Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter bases its results on a research conducted in four markets; i.e. Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow & Bangalore administered across 1200 respondents. The respondents were first exposed to critical information about each movie before their opinions were recorded.
According to the Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter; Munnabhai is slated to be the most successful movie of the year. Close to 61% of the Prosumers indicated that Munna & Cicuit would earn “Superhit” status for the movie. With 36% of Prosumers indicating that “Kabhie Alvida Na Kehna” would be a superhit; it came in a distant second to Munnabhai. Looks like the entire might of KANK cannot battle the charms of our lovable bhai next door.
Last weekend; Prosumer have given a thumbs up to the Emraan Hashmi starrer; “The Killer” and have almost written off the mega-star cast of “Yun Hota To Kya Hota”. 64% of the Prosumers believe that “The Killer” is going to be a hit. A rocking music score and an impressive star cast are the reasons that have driven their verdict. Looks like the entire might of the “Yun Hota…” star cast can’t match the box office pull of our serial kisser; Emraan Hashmi.
There’s nothing in this world that can stop Don & Dhoom 2 from being runaway hits. Right ? …Wrong. Close to 57% of the Prosumers have indicated that both Don and Dhoom 2 are going to be stupendous flops. The novelty value for the products does not exist at all, according to the Prosumers. However, consumer opinion indicates that both Don & Dhoom 2 will be “average hits”.
And what about “Omkara”? Looks like the Othello remake seems headed for disaster as close to 57% of the Prosumers believe it is going to flop at the box office. Quite funny, since the movie has been rated very highly by the Prosumers on star value as well as director appeal. Even more interesting is the fact that they believe it is going to be absolutely panned by the critics.
The new Rajshri venture, Vivaah slated for November starring Shahid Kapur does not have enough traction within the Prosumers as 61% have no opinion about the movie. And the other Sanju-Arshad caper, “Anthony Kaun Hai” will not really get the cash registers ringing as 57% believe it will be an average grosser.
Finally, the alleged Aishwarya-Abhishek affair seems to have not done enough to save “Umrao Jaan”. For all its publicity hype, close to 57% of the Prosumers believe its going to flop miserably. And even Mallika’s sex quotient will not be able to save her next comedy with Rahul Bose; “Pyaar Ke Side Effects”.
Well, the verdict is out. Neither Aishwarya’s charm nor Mallika’s x-quotient, neither Karan Johar’s reputation nor his magnum opus star cast, neither Othello nor Collateral, it’s only Munnabhai who will capture the imagination of the Prosumers this season.
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