Phulwa and Mukti Bandhan, the two new fiction properties replacing Bigg Boss in the 9-10 pm slot from January 10, are all set to have a positive opening, predicts Ormax Media, based on the research and consulting firm's predictive model anchored in the awareness tracking product Showbuzz.
As per the Showbuzz forecast, while Phulwa is likely to open at an average first week TVR of 3.4, Mukti Bandhan is likely to score about 3.1 TVR. Depending on the content quality, the TVR can be 10-15 per cent higher on either side.
Mukti Bandhan has also been tracking well, though not as strongly as Phulwa. The programme clocked 21 per cent UA and 73 per cent TA at the week 1 stage. However, Showbuzz envisages that Mukti Bandhan will benefit from the spillover from Phulwa, given their back-to-back slots.
The predicted TVR could have been even higher if the programmes were replacing a fiction show, says Ormax. With Bigg Boss being a non-fiction property, the slot is bound to lose some portion of the audience. However, as is the case with most fiction launches, a strong opening week paves way for consolidation and growth in the weeks to come. According to Ormax Media, the shows can potentially look at crossing a TVR of 4 before the two big cricketing events begin, provided the content is compelling.
Showbuzz tracks awareness of new programmes across six markets. Data collected over the last 20 months has been used to create a predictive model for fiction shows. The model predicts the opening week reach of the launches, which can then be used to arrive at indicative TVR, assuming a certain level of content.
The model takes into account the marketing buzz created by the show, the performance of the slot, competitive scenario, overall channel performance, audience flow from one show to the other and the category of the programme (fiction/ non-fiction).