India's Got Talent (IGT), the reality show from Colors, is expected to lose viewership by 25 per cent in the current season (Season 4) which was launched on September 22. The study conducted by media planning agency MEC predicts the loss.
MEC, which conducted the study in partnership with Meritus Analytics India, states that unlike the earlier seasons, this year, the two reality shows, KBC and IGT will compete with each other on the weekend prime time band. The agency predicts a fine duplication in the audience set, too.
Until now, the two shows were scheduled in totally non-conflicting time bands; KBC was aired during weekdays and IGT on weekends.
The agency's prediction for Kaun Banega Crorepati's current season (Season 6) stood nearly correct as it had predicted 10 per cent increase, to garner 5.4 opening weekend TVRs, against the actual 5.2 TVRs garnered in the opening weekend.
The key influencing factors that helped MEC draw the inference were programme promotions on the channel network and other channels, promotion across other media such as radio and newspapers, search volume index as a measure of viewer buzz and the base channel share of the airing channel.
As per the study, the latest season of IGT will open at an estimated 2.4 TVRs (All Adults, 15+, SEC ABC, All India), against last season's (Season 3) 3.19 TVRs. In the first two seasons, the show had opened with 2.36 and 3.08 TVRs.
Geetha Shiv, national director, Analytics & Insight, MEC, says, "Though the formats of KBC and IGT are completely different, both being reality shows, there could be some duplication between audiences. With IGT being scheduled immediately after KBC in this season, there could be viewer fatigue, which can lead to a dip in rating compared to last season."
However, the agency has observed that the promo levels are currently similar to last year and therefore there is nothing additional to drive viewership for a tight time slot.
Sunder Muthuraman, managing partner, Meritus Analytics, says, "In difficult times, planning investments and ROI is critical. Forecasting trends and results help in doing the right levels of investment and avoid over/under spending. This applies to media business (and any business) today. Meritus has tested frameworks to help forecast results with given inputs and help businesses plan for better ROI."