In India, post the change of Government just over six months ago, falling food and oil prices have contributed to a reduction in the Consumer Price Inflation to a historic low of 5.52 per cent in October. The stock market index has crossed 28000, up from 20000 in November 2013.
ZenithOptimedia expects consumption to be on the rise with the automobile segment turning positive. The report forecasts that Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCGs) will continue to invest in advertising, though some categories may see slow growth in the monsoons. However, Telecom, e-commerce, Mobile phones, Cars and two wheelers, retail, realty and the BFSI sector will see high growth. Another growth trigger for ad expenditure in 2015 would be the ICC Cricket World Cup.
2015 will also be the year for the new TV measurement system and the much awaited phase III expansion for FM radio. With internet base increasing to 250Mn, smartphone ownership expected to reach 200 million by 2014 end, and the country awaiting the launch of 4G services by telecom operators, Online and Mobile will continue to see the maximum growth rate. However, owing to the Government's decision to re-impose service tax this year, digital advertising has become more expensive.
ZenithOptimedia expects the ad-ex to grow by 12 per cent to Rs 40,307 crores, at an overall level in 2015, as against 10.7 per cent in 2014 (over 2013). This growth will be primarily fuelled by Print at 12 per cent, TV at 10 per cent and online and mobile at 25 per cent. Other media are expected to grow between 5 - 10 per cent.
The leading global media services network from Publicis Groupe publishes the forecast every quarter. The report contains forecasts of advertising expenditure by medium for 80 countries.
According to the report, global adspend will grow 4.9 per cent to reach US$545 billion in 2015. Though the global economy is likely to improve, the ad industry will face tough competition post the Winter Olympics, World Cup and US mid-term election.
Global adspend growth is being restrained by weakness in Japan and the Eurozone. ZenithOptimedia does not expect Japan's adspends to improve from the current 2-3 per cent, owing to their economic problems. Meanwhile, Adspend across the Eurozone fell by 15 per cent between 2007 and 2013. It is, however, poised to end 2014 with its first year of growth since 2010, with further improvement likely over the next few years.