Television and radio to witness rise in ad spends: GroupM study

GroupM has released a study on media for 2008 and 2009. The study analyses advertising spends and revenues earned by various sections of the media in the past year and predicts revenue estimates for the current year. The report begins by reiterating that in a year full of uncertainties, India is relatively better off in comparison to other markets. However, the country will have to face the negative sentiment dominating the world as major Indian players with global links get affected by the performance in other markets.

As per the report, advertising spends on newspapers and magazines will go down, whereas TV and radio will see an increase in advertising revenue. In 2009, the ad revenue commanded by the newspapers and magazines industry will be worth Rs 9,832 crore and Rs 814 crore respectively. This is lower that the revenue commanded by these media in 2008, which were Rs 10,033 and Rs 850 crore respectively.

Outdoor, too, is expected to see a slight growth. GroupM predicts that the spends in the medium will be to the tune of Rs 1,506 crore this year, as against Rs 1,448 crore in 2008. Digital, the result-driven medium, is expected to attract an estimated Rs 850 crore, having delivered garnered ad revenue worth Rs 680 crore in the previous year.

This year, cinema is estimated to draw revenue in the range of Rs 84 crore in comparison to Rs 80 crore in 2008, whereas the retail media will draw advertising worth Rs 318 crore this year against Rs 312 crore in the previous year.

Advertising spends on General Elections have been pegged at Rs 350 crore. Total advertising spends for 2009 has been estimated to be Rs 23,755 crore, which is a 4.7 per cent rise from the previous year.

The report also tracks year-on-year growth and decline witnessed by individual media. Data collated since 2005 for various media indicates that in 2009, newspapers and magazines will see their ad revenue pies declining by 2 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.

As per the data, ad revenues earned by newspapers registered a year-on-year growth of 20 per cent in 2005 and subsequently, 18 per cent in both 2006 and 2007, followed by 8 per cent in 2008. TV revenue grew by 15 per cent in 2005 and 17 per cent in 2006. Subsequently, there has been an 18 per cent increase in spends by advertisers on the medium year on year till 2008. However, in 2009, it will see an increase of 7 per cent only.

In the total revenue commanded by media, newspapers continue to command a lion’s share, with a market share of 44 per cent in 2008, which is estimated to drop to 41 per cent in the current year. Magazines commanded advertising share of 4 per cent in 2008, which is expected to be reduced to 3 per cent in 2009. TV, which had a 37 per cent share in the ad-pie in the previous year, is expected to increase its share by 1 per cent in 2009.

The report suggests that FMCG, telecom, education and entertainment were the four largest categories, which contributed 50 per cent of the total ad revenue in 2008. These recession-unaffected sectors will contribute an additional 4 per cent to the overall ad pie this year.

The industries which have taken a hit include real estate, infotech, financial services, retail, apparel, corporate and auto. These are expected to contribute about 23 per cent to the ad revenue pie. Categories that will remain stagnant in 2009 include services, durables, tourism, the Internet, airlines, paints and liquor.